Compare presidents
Every indicator against every term. For levels (unemployment, debt, income) each cell is the change per year in office; for rates (growth, inflation, deficit) it is the average during the term. The smaller number underneath is the same measure over the four years before the term: the trend each president inherited. Pick an indicator to see the terms overlaid.
| Indicator | Jimmy Carter | Ronald Reagan | George H. W. Bush | Bill Clinton | George W. Bush | Barack Obama | Donald Trump (1st) | Joe Biden | Donald Trump (2nd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | |||||||||
| Unemployment ratechange per year | −0.15 pts/yr+0.65 pts/yr | −0.24 pts/yr−0.15 pts/yr | +0.53 pts/yr−0.50 pts/yr | −0.44 pts/yr+0.53 pts/yr | +0.43 pts/yr−0.38 pts/yr | −0.32 pts/yr+0.47 pts/yr | +0.50 pts/yr−0.80 pts/yr | −0.65 pts/yr+0.50 pts/yr | +0.06 pts/yr*−0.65 pts/yr |
| Nonfarm payroll jobschange per year | +2.62 million jobs/yr+1.29 million jobs/yr | +1.99 million jobs/yr+2.62 million jobs/yr | +0.65 million jobs/yr+2.70 million jobs/yr | +2.90 million jobs/yr+0.65 million jobs/yr | +0.27 million jobs/yr+2.89 million jobs/yr | +1.32 million jobs/yr+0.55 million jobs/yr | −0.71 million jobs/yr+2.58 million jobs/yr | +3.94 million jobs/yr−0.71 million jobs/yr | +0.42 million jobs/yr*+3.94 million jobs/yr |
| Real GDP growthaverage | 3.2%1.8% | 3.5%3.2% | 2.1%3.9% | 3.9%2.1% | 2.0%4.4% | 2.2%1.1% | 2.6%2.4% | 3.1%2.6% | 2.6%*3.1% |
| Inflation (CPI, year over year)average | 9.8%8.1% | 4.6%9.8% | 4.4%3.3% | 2.6%4.4% | 2.8%2.3% | 1.4%3.3% | 1.9%1.1% | 5.0%1.9% | 3.0%*5.0% |
| Labor force participationchange per year | +0.45 pts/yr+0.32 pts/yr | +0.31 pts/yr+0.45 pts/yr | +0.05 pts/yr+0.38 pts/yr | +0.09 pts/yr+0.05 pts/yr | −0.15 pts/yr0.00 pts/yr | −0.39 pts/yr−0.03 pts/yr | −0.30 pts/yr−0.25 pts/yr | +0.25 pts/yr−0.30 pts/yr | −0.40 pts/yr*+0.25 pts/yr |
| Households | |||||||||
| Real median weekly earnings (1982–84 $)change per year | — | +$1/yr | −$3/yr+$2/yr | +$3/yr−$3/yr | +$1/yr+$5/yr | +$1/yr+$1/yr | +$7/yr+$4/yr | −$1/yr+$7/yr | +$3/yr*−$1/yr |
| Gasoline price (regular, per gallon)change per year | +$0.16/yr | −$0.04/yr+$0.16/yr | +$0.05/yr−$0.07/yr | +$0.04/yr+$0.05/yr | +$0.02/yr+$0.06/yr | +$0.07/yr−$0.05/yr | −$0.02/yr−$0.28/yr | +$0.24/yr−$0.02/yr | +$0.76/yr*+$0.24/yr |
| Egg prices (grade A large, per dozen)change per year | — | −$0.02/yr | +$0.02/yr−$0.01/yr | $0.00/yr+$0.02/yr | +$0.11/yr−$0.09/yr | −$0.06/yr+$0.16/yr | +$0.02/yr−$0.16/yr | +$0.67/yr+$0.02/yr | −$1.07/yr*+$0.67/yr |
| 30-year mortgage ratechange per year | +1.50 pts/yr+0.34 pts/yr | −0.52 pts/yr+1.50 pts/yr | −0.60 pts/yr−0.64 pts/yr | −0.10 pts/yr−0.60 pts/yr | −0.26 pts/yr−0.05 pts/yr | −0.14 pts/yr−0.11 pts/yr | −0.38 pts/yr+0.21 pts/yr | +1.01 pts/yr−0.38 pts/yr | +0.08 pts/yr*+1.01 pts/yr |
| Real median household incomechange per year | — | — | −$545/yr+$1,208/yr | +$1,125/yr−$545/yr | −$163/yr+$1,395/yr | +$621/yr+$140/yr | +$1,590/yr+$2,040/yr | +$405/yr+$1,590/yr | +$2,245/yr*+$405/yr |
| Poverty ratechange per year | — | — | — | −0.14 pts/yr | +0.24 pts/yr−0.60 pts/yr | +0.10 pts/yr+0.13 pts/yr | −0.52 pts/yr−0.48 pts/yr | +0.05 pts/yr−0.52 pts/yr | — |
| Federal budget | |||||||||
| Federal surplus or deficit (% of GDP)average | −2.2%−2.5% | −4.3%−2.2% | −4.2%−3.6% | −0.3%−4.2% | −2.4%1.5% | −5.1%−2.0% | −7.6%−2.8% | −5.8%−7.6% | — |
| Federal debt (% of GDP)change per year | −0.66 pts/yr+0.01 pts/yr | +2.32 pts/yr−0.66 pts/yr | +3.20 pts/yr+2.41 pts/yr | −1.03 pts/yr+3.20 pts/yr | +2.37 pts/yr−2.55 pts/yr | +3.93 pts/yr+3.15 pts/yr | +5.24 pts/yr+1.14 pts/yr | −1.05 pts/yr+5.24 pts/yr | +0.93 pts/yr*−1.05 pts/yr |
| National debt (dollars)change per year | +$0.07 trillion/yr+$0.05 trillion/yr | +$0.22 trillion/yr+$0.07 trillion/yr | +$0.37 trillion/yr+$0.26 trillion/yr | +$0.19 trillion/yr+$0.37 trillion/yr | +$0.63 trillion/yr+$0.08 trillion/yr | +$1.16 trillion/yr+$0.78 trillion/yr | +$1.94 trillion/yr+$0.89 trillion/yr | +$2.12 trillion/yr+$1.94 trillion/yr | +$2.17 trillion/yr*+$2.12 trillion/yr |
| Public safety | |||||||||
| Violent crime ratechange per year | — | +5 per 100k/yr | +29 per 100k/yr+25 per 100k/yr | −31 per 100k/yr+29 per 100k/yr | −6 per 100k/yr−33 per 100k/yr | −8 per 100k/yr−1 per 100k/yr | 0 per 100k/yr+2 per 100k/yr | −9 per 100k/yr0 per 100k/yr | −35 per 100k/yr*−9 per 100k/yr |
| Property crime ratechange per year | — | −37 per 100k/yr | −38 per 100k/yr+139 per 100k/yr | −161 per 100k/yr−38 per 100k/yr | −50 per 100k/yr−208 per 100k/yr | −95 per 100k/yr−75 per 100k/yr | −123 per 100k/yr−104 per 100k/yr | −49 per 100k/yr−123 per 100k/yr | −226 per 100k/yr*−49 per 100k/yr |
| Murder ratechange per year | — | −0.22 per 100k/yr | +0.22 per 100k/yr+0.13 per 100k/yr | −0.47 per 100k/yr+0.22 per 100k/yr | −0.02 per 100k/yr−0.47 per 100k/yr | 0.00 per 100k/yr−0.02 per 100k/yr | +0.29 per 100k/yr+0.16 per 100k/yr | −0.37 per 100k/yr+0.29 per 100k/yr | −0.94 per 100k/yr*−0.37 per 100k/yr |
| Firearm death ratechange per year | — | — | — | — | +0.01 per 100k/yr | +0.19 per 100k/yr+0.08 per 100k/yr | +0.45 per 100k/yr+0.33 per 100k/yr | −0.20 per 100k/yr+0.45 per 100k/yr | −0.80 per 100k/yr*−0.20 per 100k/yr |
| Health | |||||||||
| Life expectancy at birthchange per year | +0.19 years/yr+0.43 years/yr | +0.14 years/yr+0.19 years/yr | +0.21 years/yr+0.05 years/yr | +0.13 years/yr+0.21 years/yr | +0.18 years/yr+0.15 years/yr | +0.06 years/yr+0.14 years/yr | −0.39 years/yr−0.05 years/yr | +0.48 years/yr−0.39 years/yr | — |
| Drug overdose death ratechange per year | — | — | — | — | +0.71 per 100k/yr | +0.99 per 100k/yr+0.63 per 100k/yr | +2.13 per 100k/yr+1.68 per 100k/yr | −1.30 per 100k/yr+2.13 per 100k/yr | −4.62 per 100k/yr*−1.30 per 100k/yr |
| Uninsured ratechange per year | — | — | — | — | — | −0.75 pts/yr | +0.20 pts/yr−1.55 pts/yr | −0.20 pts/yr+0.20 pts/yr | — |
* Term in progress, through the latest data.
By party
Read this with care. These are averages over very few terms, a handful per party since 1977. One recession or pandemic can swing them, and no attempt is made to separate a president's influence from Congress, the Fed or the world economy. The second figure, the shift against the inherited trend, is slightly more informative than the raw average, but it is not a causal estimate either.
| Indicator | Democratic terms | Republican terms | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | vs inherited | Average | vs inherited | |
| Unemployment rate | −0.39 pts/yr n=4 | −0.93 pts/yr n=4 | +0.30 pts/yr n=4 | +0.76 pts/yr n=4 |
| Nonfarm payroll jobs | +2.70 million jobs/yr n=4 | +2.25 million jobs/yr n=4 | +0.55 million jobs/yr n=4 | −2.15 million jobs/yr n=4 |
| Real GDP growth | 3.1% n=4 | +1.2 pts n=4 | 2.5% n=4 | −0.9 pts n=4 |
| Inflation (CPI, year over year) | 4.7% n=4 | +0.3 pts n=4 | 3.4% n=4 | −0.7 pts n=4 |
| Labor force participation | +0.10 pts/yr n=4 | +0.09 pts/yr n=4 | −0.02 pts/yr n=4 | −0.17 pts/yr n=4 |
| Real median weekly earnings (1982–84 $) | +$1/yr n=3 | $0/yr n=3 | +$1/yr n=4 | −$2/yr n=3 |
| Gasoline price (regular, per gallon) | +$0.13/yr n=4 | +$0.12/yr n=3 | +$0.01/yr n=4 | +$0.04/yr n=4 |
| Egg prices (grade A large, per dozen) | +$0.20/yr n=3 | +$0.14/yr n=3 | +$0.03/yr n=4 | +$0.14/yr n=3 |
| 30-year mortgage rate | +0.57 pts/yr n=4 | +0.76 pts/yr n=4 | −0.44 pts/yr n=4 | −0.69 pts/yr n=4 |
| Real median household income | +$717/yr n=3 | +$322/yr n=3 | +$294/yr n=3 | −$1,253/yr n=3 |
| Poverty rate | 0.00 pts/yr n=3 | +0.27 pts/yr n=2 | −0.14 pts/yr n=2 | +0.39 pts/yr n=2 |
| Federal surplus or deficit (% of GDP) | −3.4% n=4 | +0.7 pts n=4 | −4.6% n=4 | −2.8 pts n=4 |
| Federal debt (% of GDP) | +0.30 pts/yr n=4 | −2.61 pts/yr n=4 | +3.28 pts/yr n=4 | +3.20 pts/yr n=4 |
| National debt (dollars) | +$0.88 trillion/yr n=4 | +$0.10 trillion/yr n=4 | +$0.79 trillion/yr n=4 | +$0.47 trillion/yr n=4 |
| Violent crime rate | −16 per 100k/yr n=3 | −25 per 100k/yr n=3 | +7 per 100k/yr n=4 | +9 per 100k/yr n=3 |
| Property crime rate | −102 per 100k/yr n=3 | −23 per 100k/yr n=3 | −62 per 100k/yr n=4 | −13 per 100k/yr n=3 |
| Murder rate | −0.28 per 100k/yr n=3 | −0.44 per 100k/yr n=3 | +0.07 per 100k/yr n=4 | +0.22 per 100k/yr n=3 |
| Firearm death rate | −0.01 per 100k/yr n=2 | −0.27 per 100k/yr n=2 | +0.23 per 100k/yr n=2 | +0.12 per 100k/yr n=1 |
| Life expectancy at birth | +0.21 years/yr n=4 | +0.12 years/yr n=4 | +0.04 years/yr n=4 | −0.05 years/yr n=4 |
| Drug overdose death rate | −0.16 per 100k/yr n=2 | −1.53 per 100k/yr n=2 | +1.42 per 100k/yr n=2 | +0.45 per 100k/yr n=1 |
| Uninsured rate | −0.48 pts/yr n=2 | −0.40 pts/yr n=1 | +0.20 pts/yr n=1 | +1.75 pts/yr n=1 |
Completed terms only. n is the number of terms with data for that indicator. "vs inherited" is the term's figure minus the same figure over the four years before it, averaged.