Govargus

How is the United States doing?

The US economy, household finances, federal budget, crime and health by president, from official data. Indicators for Donald Trump's term so far, 637 days in, next to where Joe Biden was at the same point. Presidents share the controls with Congress, the Fed and the rest of the world, and most policies take years to show up, so nothing here is scored. How to read this.

▲▼ change since Trump took office (Jan 20, 2025), next to Biden at the same point in their term.

Economy

Unemployment rate

4.2% Sep 2026

▲ 0.1 ptsBiden, same point: ▼ 3.2 pts

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)0%5%10%15%20%2020202220242026Mar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemicMar 27, 2020 · Law: CARES ActMar 16, 2022 · Federal Reserve: Fed begins raising rates
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)0%5%10%15%20%19801990200020102020Sep 15, 2008 · Shock: Lehman Brothers collapsesFeb 17, 2009 · Law: American Recovery and Reinvestment ActMar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemicMar 27, 2020 · Law: CARES ActMar 16, 2022 · Federal Reserve: Fed begins raising rates

Nonfarm payroll jobs

159.0 million jobs Sep 2026

▲ 0.5% +0.7 million jobsBiden, same point: ▲ 7.7%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)1201301401501601702020202220242026
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)8010012014016018019801990200020102020

Real GDP growth

2.2% Q2 2026

avg 2.6% this termBiden, same point: 3.3%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)−40%−20%0%20%40%2020202220242026Mar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemicNov 15, 2021 · Law: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs ActApr 2, 2025 · Trade: Broad "reciprocal" tariffs announced
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)−40%−20%0%20%40%19801990200020102020Oct 19, 1987 · Shock: Black Monday stock crashJan 1, 1994 · Trade: NAFTA takes effectSep 11, 2001 · Shock: September 11 attacksSep 15, 2008 · Shock: Lehman Brothers collapsesFeb 17, 2009 · Law: American Recovery and Reinvestment ActJul 21, 2010 · Law: Dodd–Frank financial reformDec 22, 2017 · Law: Tax Cuts and Jobs ActJul 6, 2018 · Trade: Section 301 tariffs on China beginMar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemicNov 15, 2021 · Law: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs ActApr 2, 2025 · Trade: Broad "reciprocal" tariffs announced

Inflation (CPI, year over year)

3.7% Sep 2026

avg 3.0% this termBiden, same point: 6.5%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)−5%0%5%10%2020202220242026Mar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanMar 16, 2022 · Federal Reserve: Fed begins raising ratesAug 16, 2022 · Law: Inflation Reduction ActApr 2, 2025 · Trade: Broad "reciprocal" tariffs announced
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)−5%0%5%10%15%20%19801990200020102020Jul 6, 2018 · Trade: Section 301 tariffs on China beginMar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanMar 16, 2022 · Federal Reserve: Fed begins raising ratesAug 16, 2022 · Law: Inflation Reduction ActApr 2, 2025 · Trade: Broad "reciprocal" tariffs announced

Labor force participation

61.8% Sep 2026

▼ 0.7 ptsBiden, same point: ▲ 0.7 pts

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)59%60%61%62%63%64%2020202220242026Mar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemic
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)58%60%62%64%66%68%19801990200020102020Aug 22, 1996 · Law: Welfare reform (PRWORA)Mar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemic

Households

Real median weekly earnings (1982–84 $)

$378 Q2 2026

▲ 1.1% +$4Biden, same point: ▼ 4.5%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)$350$360$370$380$390$4002020202220242026
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)$300$350$40019801990200020102020Jan 1, 1994 · Trade: NAFTA takes effect

Gasoline price (regular, per gallon)

$4.48 Sep 2026

▲ 42.5% +$1.34Biden, same point: ▲ 79.0%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)$1$2$3$4$5$62020202220242026
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)$0$2$4$619801990200020102020

Egg prices (grade A large, per dozen)

$2.27 Sep 2026

▼ 45.2% −$1.87Biden, same point: ▲ 95.9%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)$0$2$4$6$82020202220242026
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)$0$2$4$6$819801990200020102020

30-year mortgage rate

7.36% Oct 2026

▲ 0.64 ptsBiden, same point: ▲ 4.22 pts

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)2%4%6%8%10%2020202220242026Mar 16, 2022 · Federal Reserve: Fed begins raising rates
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)0%5%10%15%20%19801990200020102020Mar 16, 2022 · Federal Reserve: Fed begins raising rates

Real median household income

$87,460 2025

▲ 2.6% +$2,250Biden, same point: ▼ 0.4%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)$80k$82k$84k$86k$88k2020202220242026
Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)$50k$60k$70k$80k$90k1990200020102020Sep 15, 2008 · Shock: Lehman Brothers collapses

Poverty rate

12.1% 2024

No data yet for this term (published yearly, with a lag)

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)11.5%12.0%12.5%13.0%2020202220242026Mar 27, 2020 · Law: CARES ActMar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanJul 4, 2025 · Law: One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)10%12%14%16%18%1990200020102020Aug 10, 1993 · Law: Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993Aug 22, 1996 · Law: Welfare reform (PRWORA)Mar 23, 2010 · Law: Affordable Care Act signedMar 27, 2020 · Law: CARES ActMar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanJul 4, 2025 · Law: One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Federal budget

Federal surplus or deficit (% of GDP)

−5.8% 2025

No data yet for this term (published yearly, with a lag)

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)−20%−15%−10%−5%0%2020202220242026Mar 27, 2020 · Law: CARES ActMar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanAug 16, 2022 · Law: Inflation Reduction ActJul 4, 2025 · Law: One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Federal debt (% of GDP)

122.6% Q1 2026

▲ 1.2 ptsBiden, same point: ▼ 5.2 pts

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)100%110%120%130%140%2020202220242026Mar 27, 2020 · Law: CARES ActMar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanJul 4, 2025 · Law: One Big Beautiful Bill Act

National debt (dollars)

$39.46 trillion Q2 2026

▲ 9.0% +$3.24 trillionBiden, same point: ▲ 10.2%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)$20$25$30$35$40$452020202220242026Mar 27, 2020 · Law: CARES ActMar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanJul 4, 2025 · Law: One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Public safety

Violent crime rate

328 per 100k 2025

▼ 9.7% −35 per 100kBiden, same point: ▼ 2.9%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)3203403603804004202020202220242026May 25, 2020 · Shock: Murder of George Floyd and nationwide protests
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)20040060080019801990200020102020Nov 30, 1993 · Law: Brady Handgun Violence Prevention ActSep 13, 1994 · Law: Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement ActMay 25, 2020 · Shock: Murder of George Floyd and nationwide protests

Property crime rate

1,535 per 100k 2025

▼ 12.8% −226 per 100kBiden, same point: ▼ 6.4%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)1,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002020202220242026
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00019801990200020102020Sep 13, 1994 · Law: Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act

Murder rate

4.1 per 100k 2025

▼ 18.5% −0.9 per 100kBiden, same point: ▲ 3.7%

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)3456782020202220242026Mar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemicMay 25, 2020 · Shock: Murder of George Floyd and nationwide protests
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)2468101219801990200020102020Nov 30, 1993 · Law: Brady Handgun Violence Prevention ActSep 13, 1994 · Law: Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement ActSep 13, 2004 · Law: Federal assault weapons ban expiresMar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemicMay 25, 2020 · Shock: Murder of George Floyd and nationwide protests

Firearm death rate

12.4 per 100k 12 mo. to Jun 2025, provisional

▼ 3.1% −0.4 per 100k

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)121314152020202220242026ProvisionalMar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemicJun 25, 2022 · Law: Bipartisan Safer Communities Act
Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)810121416200020102020ProvisionalSep 13, 2004 · Law: Federal assault weapons ban expiresMar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemicJun 25, 2022 · Law: Bipartisan Safer Communities Act

Health

Life expectancy at birth

78.9 years 2024

No data yet for this term (published yearly, with a lag)

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)76777879802020202220242026Mar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemic
Jimmy Carter (Democratic)Ronald Reagan (Republican)George H. W. Bush (Republican)Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)727476788019801990200020102020Dec 8, 2003 · Law: Medicare Part D createdMar 23, 2010 · Law: Affordable Care Act signedMar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemic

Drug overdose death rate

20.8 per 100k 12 mo. to Jun 2025, provisional

▼ 10.0% −2.3 per 100k

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)15202530352020202220242026ProvisionalMar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemic
Bill Clinton (Democratic)BushGeorge W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)Joe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)010203040200020102020ProvisionalMar 23, 2010 · Law: Affordable Care Act signedOct 26, 2017 · Executive action: Opioid crisis declared a public health emergencyOct 24, 2018 · Law: SUPPORT for Patients and Communities ActMar 11, 2020 · Shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemic

Uninsured rate

8.2% 2024

No data yet for this term (published yearly, with a lag)

Donald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)7.8%8.0%8.2%8.4%8.6%8.8%2020202220242026Mar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanJul 4, 2025 · Law: One Big Beautiful Bill Act
George W. Bush (Republican)ObamaBarack Obama (Democratic)TrumpDonald Trump (1st term) (Republican)BidenJoe Biden (Democratic)Donald Trump (2nd term) (Republican)Recession (NBER)Recession (NBER)6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2010201520202025Mar 23, 2010 · Law: Affordable Care Act signedJan 1, 2014 · Law: ACA coverage expansion beginsDec 22, 2017 · Law: Tax Cuts and Jobs ActMar 11, 2021 · Law: American Rescue PlanJul 4, 2025 · Law: One Big Beautiful Bill Act

More: Donald Trump (2nd term)'s full page · every term compared · what's been signed