Murder rate, term by term
Every term lined up from its inauguration. Context is everything: compare the start of a term with the trend it inherited and with what was happening in the world (recessions, pandemics), all of which are on the full murder rate chart.
Of the 7 completed terms with data, the murder rate rose fastest under Donald Trump (1st term), at +0.29 per 100k/yr against +0.16 per 100k/yr in the four years before, and fell fastest under Bill Clinton, at −0.47 per 100k/yr against +0.22 per 100k/yr in the four years before. So far under Donald Trump (2nd term), it has gone from 5.1 per 100k in 2024 to 4.1 per 100k in 2025.
Numbers
| President | During term | 4 years before |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (2nd term) | 5.1 per 100k → 4.1 per 100k −0.94 per 100k/yr · through 2025 | −0.37 per 100k/yr |
| Joe Biden | 6.5 per 100k → 5.1 per 100k −0.37 per 100k/yr | +0.29 per 100k/yr |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | 5.4 per 100k → 6.5 per 100k +0.29 per 100k/yr | +0.16 per 100k/yr |
| Barack Obama | 5.4 per 100k → 5.4 per 100k 0.00 per 100k/yr | −0.02 per 100k/yr |
| George W. Bush | 5.5 per 100k → 5.4 per 100k −0.02 per 100k/yr | −0.47 per 100k/yr |
| Bill Clinton | 9.3 per 100k → 5.5 per 100k −0.47 per 100k/yr | +0.22 per 100k/yr |
| George H. W. Bush | 8.5 per 100k → 9.3 per 100k +0.22 per 100k/yr | +0.13 per 100k/yr |
| Ronald Reagan | 10.2 per 100k → 8.5 per 100k −0.22 per 100k/yr | — |
| Jimmy Carter | no data | no data |