# US real GDP growth by president, 1980–2026

Source page: https://govargus.com/indicators/gdp-growth

Quarter-over-quarter change in inflation-adjusted GDP, expressed at an annual rate. Noisy by nature; look at the shape, not single quarters.

Latest: 2.2% (Q2 2026).
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED A191RL1Q225SBEA (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA). Quarterly data, fetched Oct 19, 2026.

Since 1980, real GDP growth ranged from −28.0% in Q2 2020 under Donald Trump (1st term) to 34.9% in Q3 2020 under Donald Trump (1st term). Of the 8 completed terms with data, real GDP growth averaged highest under Bill Clinton, at 3.9% against 2.1% in the four years before, and lowest under George W. Bush, at 2.0% against 4.4% in the four years before. So far under Donald Trump (2nd term), it has averaged 2.6%.

## By presidential term

Each row is the average during the term, next to the average over the four years before it. A term's first year mostly reflects the previous administration's policies, and Congress, the Federal Reserve and the world economy move these numbers too. Govargus describes; it does not score presidents.

| President | Term | During term | 4 years before |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Donald Trump (2nd term) | 2025–present | avg 2.6% so far | avg 3.1% |
| Joe Biden | 2021–2025 | avg 3.1% | avg 2.6% |
| Donald Trump (1st term) | 2017–2021 | avg 2.6% | avg 2.4% |
| Barack Obama | 2009–2017 | avg 2.2% | avg 1.1% |
| George W. Bush | 2001–2009 | avg 2.0% | avg 4.4% |
| Bill Clinton | 1993–2001 | avg 3.9% | avg 2.1% |
| George H. W. Bush | 1989–1993 | avg 2.1% | avg 3.9% |
| Ronald Reagan | 1981–1989 | avg 3.5% | avg 3.2% |
| Jimmy Carter | 1977–1981 | avg 3.2% | avg 1.8% |

## Events that bear on this indicator

- Oct 19, 1987, shock: Black Monday stock crash. The Dow falls 22.6% in a single day.
- Jan 1, 1994, trade: NAFTA takes effect. Free-trade area between the US, Canada and Mexico begins.
- Sep 11, 2001, shock: September 11 attacks. Followed by the wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), largely financed by borrowing.
- Sep 15, 2008, shock: Lehman Brothers collapses. The financial crisis peaks; the Great Recession deepens.
- Feb 17, 2009, law: American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. About $800 billion in stimulus: tax cuts, aid to states, infrastructure and safety-net spending.
- Jul 21, 2010, law: Dodd–Frank financial reform. New capital, oversight and consumer-protection rules for banks.
- Dec 22, 2017, law: Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Corporate rate cut from 35% to 21%, temporary individual rate cuts, and the ACA's individual-mandate penalty set to zero from 2019.
- Jul 6, 2018, trade: Section 301 tariffs on China begin. First 25% tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports; China retaliates and the trade war escalates through 2019.
- Mar 11, 2020, shock: COVID-19 declared a pandemic. Lockdowns push unemployment to 14.8% in April 2020.
- Nov 15, 2021, law: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. About $1.2 trillion for roads, bridges, broadband, water and transit.
- Apr 2, 2025, trade: Broad "reciprocal" tariffs announced. A baseline 10% tariff on most imports plus higher country-specific rates, several later paused or renegotiated.